DCF Valuation
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) DCF Valuation — Is MPC undervalued?
The estimated DCF fair value of one Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) share is $576.25. Compared to the current market price of $298.20, the stock is undervalued by 93.2%.
DCF fair value
$576.25
Market price
$298.20
Upside / downside
+93.2%
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Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) DCF valuation FAQ
What is the DCF fair value of Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC)?
The discounted-cash-flow model estimates the intrinsic fair value of one Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) share at $576.25, based on a 10-year projection of its cash flows converging to Damodaran industry averages.
Is Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) overvalued or undervalued?
Against the current market price of $298.20, the DCF fair value of $576.25 implies MPC is undervalued by 93.2%.
How is the MPC DCF value calculated?
It is a 10-year discounted-cash-flow estimate built from Marathon Petroleum Corp's reported fundamentals, with terminal assumptions anchored to Damodaran NYU industry datasets. The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Marathon Petroleum Corp files a new quarterly or annual report.
How this MPC valuation is built
The model projects ten years of Marathon Petroleum Corp's free cash flow to the firm and discounts each year at its own cost of capital. Rather than assuming today's growth and margins persist forever, a moat-scoring step — weighing Marathon Petroleum Corp's ROIC-versus-WACC spread, gross-margin trend, and reinvestment efficiency — decides how many years the business holds its edge before its economics mean-revert toward the Damodaran NYU benchmarks for its industry.
WACC is rebuilt each year from an unlevered-then-relevered beta and the company's evolving capital structure; terminal value uses the Gordon growth model with a reinvestment rate tied to the return earned on new capital (goodwill stripped out to reflect operating efficiency). Every assumption — growth, margins, tax, leverage, convergence timing — is editable, and running the full interactive model adds a 10,000-draw Monte Carlo simulation and WACC-versus-terminal-growth sensitivity heatmaps.
The market price refreshes daily; the DCF fair value updates when Marathon Petroleum Corp files a new quarterly or annual report. For educational/informational purposes only — not investment advice. Last updated 2026-08-08.